Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

914
FXUS61 KCLE 061814
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
214 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast as it remains on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures continue through
Sunday. Rain chances return Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through the remainder
of the week and beginning of the weekend. High pressure over the
Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes will exit to the east as a cold
front swings southeast across the region Wednesday evening. Most of
the forecast area will remain dry with the frontal passage outside
of low-end PoPs in lake enhanced rain showers across Northwest
Pennsylvania Wednesday night.

Another area of high pressure builds overhead behind the cold front
which will continue the prolonged dry conditions through early
Sunday. By Sunday, a disturbance originating from the Gulf will
move north towards the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys bringing
increased tropical moisture to the region. If the forecasted
track persists, widespread rainfall is expected Sunday into
Monday. Will continue to monitor forecast trends with this
disturbance in the coming days.

High temperature through the period will generally remain in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Slightly warmer highs possible Wednesday and
Saturday in the mid 70s as a warm front will lift across the
region both days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle as high pressure drifts
into the Mid Atlantic region. This will allow a warm front to
lift across the area tonight followed by an approaching cold
front by Wednesday afternoon, but only scattered high to mid-
level clouds are expected with the cold front. The main impact
will be increasing winds. Light S to SW winds areawide this
afternoon will allow a lake breeze to impact KCLE and KERI at
times before S to SW winds increase to 5-10 knots tonight and
10-15 knots by Wednesday morning while becoming SW. The SW winds
will gust to 20-25 knots at times late Wednesday morning through
the afternoon.

Outlook...Overall VFR conditions are expected most of this
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine weather and conditions will be relatively quiet for
today as high pressure tracks across Lake Erie this morning.
There is a notable land breeze that has develop overnight and
is located mainly over the open waters this early morning. The
land breeze may persist through sunrise before it fades away.
Winds will become southerly to southwesterly today 5 to 10 knots
and waves around a foot. Southwest winds will increase 15 to 25
knots tonight into Wednesday ahead of the next cold front
tracking through the Great Lakes. There will likely be the need
for an additional Small Craft Advisory tonight into at least
early afternoon Wednesday. Winds will shift from the northwest
10 to 15 knots behind the cold front Wednesday night and
continue through Thursday evening. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet
behind the front. High pressure will build over Lake Erie for
the end of the week and into the weekend with westerly to
southerly winds 5 to 12 knots Friday and Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...77