Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

160
FXUS61 KCLE 231920
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
320 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms likely through the end of the
week with a chance for a few strong storms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

2) Below normal temperatures through Wednesday, with a warming trend
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
After a dry period today and Wednesday, a trough will dive south
from Central Canada down into the Great Lakes region late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. At the surface, a low pressure will
move west to east into the region lifting a warm front north across
Ohio and Pennsylvania. Surface winds will shift to be out of the
south behind the front increasing temperatures and dew points across
the region. Additionally, there will be some isentropic lift with
the front that will develop showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
early Thursday morning into the mid day. This precipitation will
linger throughout the day, though there may be a brief break in the
afternoon ahead of the cold front. There will be decent jet support
with the front with enough instability from the advecting warm,
moist air mass from the south that would support a few strong to
severe thunderstorms. The general area would be along and east of I-
71. Though, this will also be dependent on how the morning
precipitation shapes up and if there will be enough recovery across
the region to be able to support severe weather. The cold front
should clear the region to the south and east late Thursday evening
ending any severe weather potential.

The cold front will stale to the south across the Ohio River Valley
on Friday and waver north to south through Saturday. This will
provide periodic showers and a few thunderstorms across the region,
mainly south of the US 30 corridor. A supporting shortwave will move
through the Ohio River Valley on Friday that will push precipitation
further north and bring more moisture into the region. This will be
fighting drier air from high pressure situated across the Northern
Great Lakes and will most likely limit the northward extent of the
precipitation. Upper level ridging begins to build into Eastern
CONUS on Saturday and will dry out the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Temperatures over the next couple of days will continue to be below
average with the northerly flow across the region. Highs today will
be in the 70s and approach the low 80s on Wednesday with overnight
lows tonight in the mid to low 50s. Behind the warm front on
temperatures will begin a warming trend, though will be slightly
muted due to the rainfall and increased cloud cover. Highs will be
in the 80s with dew points climbing up into the low to mid 60s with
the southerly flow. By Sunday, as high pressure begins to build
across the region, temperatures will increase further and continue
into early next week. There`s fairly good agreement that high
temperatures by the start of next week will approach, if not exceed,
90 for much of the region outside of the area around the lakeshore.
Additionally, this will bring a more humid air mass as well, and
heat indices will be elevated as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with mainly VFR to
persist through the TAF period. There is some concern for IFR
mist and/or patchy fog to develop at CAK/YNG late tonight into
Wednesday morning. Will continue to monitor if vsbys trend any
lower into LIFR territory.

Otherwise, winds are generally north to northwest this
afternoon, 8 to 12 knots with isolated gusts up to 20 knots.
Winds will become light and variable overnight, favoring a
slight southerly direction by late Wednesday morning, around 5
knots. A lake breeze will develop at CLE/ERI late Wednesday
morning/early afternoon, 6 to 8 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night into Thursday, and again on Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
With the exception of some stronger wind gusts associated with
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, generally quiet
marine conditions are expected into the weekend. Periods of
light, onshore flow of around 10 knots will continue through
Wednesday night, before briefly becoming south to southwest on
Thursday, 10 to 15 knots. Winds will shift back to the north,
then northeast behind a cold front on Friday into Saturday, 10
knots or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn