Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

949
FXUS61 KCLE 091006
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
606 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A low end potential for severe weather remains for much of the
area today. The best window for strong to severe thunderstorms
is 3 to 10 PM today. Sunday night is trending a bit warmer,
likely limiting frost potential, but Monday night is trending
cooler and widespread frost/freeze conditions are becoming more
likely.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An initial round of rain will exit east this morning. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. Storms could reach strong to severe limits.

2) Dry weather with below normal temperatures are expected
early next week with frost/freeze chances increasing for Monday
night.

3) Another system will enter for the middle of next week,
bringing additional rain chances to the region. Some storms and
moderate rainfall could be possible on Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Shower activity will continue across the southeastern half of
the forecast area this morning, bringing another 0.10-0.30" of
rain from Mansfield to Meadville and southeast. Behind this
rain, there should be a dry window for much of the area through
the early afternoon hours. This will allow for the atmosphere to
recover well in the warm sector with temperatures returning into
the 60s and even lower 70s for some, mainly where the sun can
find its way through the clouds for a couple of hours. There
should also be some decent mixing in the warm sector as well
with southwest winds gusting 25 to 30 mph. This improved air
mass will be present later today ahead of a cold front that will
approach the region from the northwest. A new round of
convective activity should develop well ahead of the front by
mid-afternoon, as a stronger shortwave moves through the broader
trough aloft. This activity will tap into a marginally unstable
air mass and allow for widespread showers and some thunderstorms
to move across the region later today.

The main question is: Could storms become organized and pose a
strong to severe weather risk today? The answer to that
question will fully rely on the atmosphere recovery this morning
and early afternoon. If temperatures trend warmer into the 70s,
suspect that there will be more storm activity and potential for
severe weather as MLCAPE values can get over 1000 J/kg. If
recovery is slower with more cloud cover across the region, then
temperatures may not reach 70 degrees and instability would be
less conducive for severe weather. Outside of instability
factors, there will be good jet support aloft and broader shear
to sustain thunderstorms if they can get going this afternoon.
If storms do develop, the main threats would be damaging wind
gusts and large hail, especially with fairly low freezing levels
across the region. A Marginal Risk of Severe Weather from the
Storm Prediction Center remains across the area for today and
continues to convey the conditional storm threat.

Rain will continue across the area tonight into Sunday with
support from the upper trough aloft and the main cold front
sweeping through the region. The loss of daytime heating should
allow for convection to switch to just rain tonight. QPF totals
could be up to a half inch of rainfall for this afternoon into
tonight with a low potential for more where rain persists.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Cool high pressure will enter the region starting on Sunday
afternoon and remain over the area through Tuesday morning,
allowing for 36-48 hours of dry weather across the region. This
will also promote several periods of below normal temperatures.
Clouds will remain across the region on Sunday night with the
Saturday system departing to the east. This may keep low
temperatures more in the lower 40s vs. mid-to-upper 30s and may
limit the overall frost threat across the area. High pressure
solidly across the area on Monday night and should allow for a
clear, calm, and decoupling atmosphere and low temperatures in
the 30s should be anticipated. Frost, if not freeze, headlines
are becoming more likely on Monday night for a large portion of
the forecast area. High temperatures on Monday will be in the
50s. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s with high
pressure moving out and some return flow entering the region.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The pattern will return to unsettled for the middle of next
week with a low pressure moving through the Great Lakes region.
Rain chances will be expected from Tuesday night through
Thursday with the system. The initial arrival of the system
during the night on Tuesday should limit thunderstorm activity
but will continue some slight chances of thunder, mainly out
west. Otherwise, just rain will be expected for Wednesday and
Thursday at this time. There could be some moderate rain on
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and will need to watch for
trends with that part of the forecast for any future flood
concern. Rain will be lighter later with the system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Cyclonic W`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect our
region through 12Z/Sun. At the surface, net troughing lingers
for the time being and a cold front should sweep generally
SE`ward across northern OH and NW PA between ~22Z/Sat and
~05Z/Sun. Behind the front, a high pressure ridge builds slowly
from the Canadian Prairies and vicinity through 12Z/Sun. Ahead
of the cold front, our regional surface winds trend S`erly to
SW`erly around 5 to 15 knots and should gust up to 20 to 25
knots at times, especially late this morning through early
evening. The cold front passage will cause our regional surface
winds to veer to W`erly and be around 5 to 10 knots for several
hours. Farther behind the surface front, surface winds should
become light and variable and then remain so through 12Z/Sun as
the MSLP gradient weakens in response to the building surface
ridge.

Scattered light to moderate rain showers associated with one of
the aforementioned disturbances aloft continue to exit
generally E`ward from our region through ~14Z/Sat. Visibility
will vary between VFR and IFR in this rain. Otherwise,
widespread ceilings are expected to range between about 5kft AGL
and IFR through ~14Z/Sat. Behind this morning`s rain, subtle
breaks in the low-level cloud cover, weak surface winds, and
sufficient low-level moisture should allow radiation mist with
visibility in the MVFR to IFR range to form through ~12Z/Sat.
The mist and low ceilings are then expected to give way to
widespread VFR by ~14Z/Sat, following the onset of diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer. Scattered rain showers
and thunderstorms along and ahead of the surface cold front
should impact our region between ~19Z/Sat and ~05Z/Sun as the
convection persists generally E`ward. These showers and storms
should be accompanied by brief MVFR to LIFR and generate
brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots. Following
the surface cold front passage, VFR are expected and scattered
rain showers associated with the upper-reaches of the front
should exit generally E`ward between ~02Z/Sun and ~07Z/Sun.
Widespread dry weather is then expected through 12Z/Sun.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
expected this Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
S`erly to SW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected on
Lake Erie through this afternoon as the axes of subtle troughs
advance E`ward across the lake. These winds may flirt with 20
knots at times this afternoon. During this evening through
tonight, a cold front should sweep SE`ward across Lake Erie and
cause SW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer toward NW`erly.
However, these winds may flirt with 20 knots at times early
this evening. Waves should trend 3 feet or less, but occasional
4 footers are possible this afternoon and evening.

Behind the cold front, a ridge should affect Lake Erie as the
embedded high pressure center moves from the Canadian Prairies
toward Atlantic waters near NC on Sunday through Tuesday. Primarily
NW`erly to N`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots on Sunday through
Monday should become variable in direction Monday night through
Tuesday. Waves should trend 3 feet or less.

The ridge should exit E`ward Tuesday night through Wednesday as a
low wobbles ESE`ward from the northwestern Great Lakes toward Lake
Ontario and weakens gradually. Accordingly, a warm front should
sweep NE`ward across Lake Erie Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning and cause SE`erly winds around 15 to 25 knots to veer to
S`erly to SW`erly. A cold front should then sweep E`ward across Lake
Erie late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening and cause
winds to veer to W`erly to NW`erly as wind speeds ease to around 10
to 20 knots. Waves should primarily be 4 feet or less, but
occasional 5 to 6 footers are possible. Forecast trends may
prompt the eventual issuance of a Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka